Abortion Overtakes Immigration in Voters’ Minds

Abortion has overtaken immigration to become the second most important issue for voters heading into the 2024 election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, Newsweek polling suggests.
Over the past 16 months, a series of polls conducted byRedfield & Wilton Strategies ahead of the November 5 election asked participants: “Which issues are most likely to determine how you vote in the November 2024 Presidential Election? You may select up to three.”
Only four issues out of 24 were repeatedly selected by more than two in five respondents: the economy, abortion, immigration and healthcare.
The economy was named the most important election issue for voters in every survey conducted since July 2023, regularly being cited by around 60 percent of respondents.
Abortion and immigration have both been competing for second place across the arc of the polling, but abortion was the issue that has risen most, and has overtaken immigration in recent months.
Abortion was cited as a key issue by 21 percent of respondents in the first poll of July 2023, and was cited by 38 percent of respondents in the latest poll of October 2024. By contrast, immigration was cited as a key issue by 30 percent of respondents in the first poll of July 2023, and was cited by 36 percent of respondents in the latest poll of October 2024.
Immigration has been the second most commonly cited issue by men, while abortion has consistently ranked as the second most important issue for women.
This article is part of Newsweek’s tracker polling, where Americans have been asked questions on topics such as abortion, immigration and the war in Ukraine over the past 16 months.
This data is based on polling conducted exclusively by Redfield & Wilton Strategies on behalf of Newsweek between July 2023 and October 2024. Altogether, 19 polls were conducted, asking cumulatively 34,800 eligible voters about the key issues of the 2024 election.
As the 2024 election approaches, the most pressing concerns for voters will be taking center stage in the campaigns of Trump and Harris. The race remains neck-and-neck, wider polling suggests, and may ultimately come down to just a few thousand votes in key battleground states like Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona.
“In such a highly contested political context, neither candidate can afford to yield ground on any issue—whether the economy, reproductive rights, immigration, democracy, or the rule of law,” Cary Coglianese, a political science professor at the University of Pennsylvania, told Newsweek.
Healthcare was identified as a main issue for about one in three voters each month. It placed second in the polls conducted in 2023, but has been in fourth place across the last several polls of 2024.
Housing, the environment, taxation, and government spending are lower down, with between 10 and 20 percent of poll respondents seeing them as a top concern.
Other concerns that saw minor declines across the polling include foreign policy, Covid, and policing and crime.
“The attempt by both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris to diminish the surging importance of immigration initially succeeded but ultimately failed, with immigration moving from a clear second earlier this year to fourth in terms of importance over the summer before recovering to being virtually tied with abortion for second, Philip van Scheltinga, director of research at Redfield & Wilton Strategies, told Newsweek.
“The Harris campaign has had some success in accentuating the issue of abortion, particularly among female and young voters. However, while abortion is now the most important issue for Harris voters, slightly above the economy, the primacy of this issue has not quite registered for the rest of the voting public and the swing voters who will decide this election.”
Both Harris and Trump have offered opposing views on abortion this campaign.
Harris and the Democrats have made maintaining abortion rights and reproductive healthcare a key campaign pledge.
In a recent appearance on the Call Her Daddy podcast, Harris told host Alex Cooper that the government shouldn’t be telling women about their own reproductive rights.
“What’s so outrageous about it is a bunch of these guys up in these state capitals are writing these decisions because they somehow have decided that they’re in a better position to tell you what’s in your best interest than you are to know what’s in your own best interest,” Harris said.
Trump, meanwhile, has largely avoided the topic. He has said he wants abortion access to remain decided by individual states, repeatedly taking credit for the overturning of Roe v. Wade, having nominated three conservative justices on the Supreme Court bench who voted to quash the landmark abortion legislation in June 2022. He has denied he would sign a national abortion ban if he returned to the White House.
Issues over reproductive rights will also be on the ballots in 10 states in November, including where abortion is now largely banned post-Roe v. Wade.
The latest poll, conducted in October, found that 20 percent of 2024 Trump supporters view abortion as a key election issue, compared to 58 percent of Harris supporters.
Silvina Alarcón, political director for abortion rights non-profit Reproductive Freedom for All, told Newsweek: “Decisions about whether or when to start or grow our families should be our own to make. This issue matters to voters, and with Trump and MAGA Republicans’ abortion bans threatening voters’ lives and well-being, it will be top of mind as they head to the ballot box.
“The contrast between the two campaigns, and what they seek to do when they take office, is clear.”
The polling shows that economic concerns remain paramount for voters across all demographics, including every age bloc, male and female voters, and whether they intend on backing Harris or Trump in November.
Christopher Borick, a professor of political science and the director of polling organization at the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion in Pennsylvania, said that economic issues are “perpetually one of the most salient” for Americans in elections, and that the recent decades-high levels of inflation intensified these concerns.
Trump positions himself as the candidate most trusted to handle economic issues, recalling a strong economy during his presidency.
“Trump has an easier sell on the matter, laying the blame on the current administration and offering a change of direction,” Borrick told Newsweek.
“Harris has had to navigate a more challenging terrain, promoting the robust economic performance achieved during her tenure as VP, including declining inflation, while selling a new direction on economic policy that includes targeted tax breaks and subsidies to help the middle class attain goods such as homes that have been out of reach because of inflationary pressures.”
Harris can take solace in the economy largely improving in the run-up to the election.
Gas prices have fallen, and inflation dropped to a three-year low of 2.5 percent in August. The current unemployment rate has also fallen to near historic lows of 4.1 percent, with the 254,000 jobs added to the labor market in September going way beyond estimations.
The polling results also highlight generational differences in issue prioritization.
Immigration appears to gain importance the older voters get. Around one-quarter of Gen Z (those aged 18-26) and Millennials (aged 27-42) listed it among their main issues, whereas it was regularly cited by almost half of those in the Boomer generation (aged 59 to 75.)
Roughly a fifth to a quarter of Gen Z and Millennial voters regularly place housing among their top election issues. In comparison, the polling shows only around one in 10 of the Boomer generation will take housing into account when they cast their vote in November.